Fantasy Preview: NFC East
Fantasy Preview: NFC East By Jay Ruggiero (email)
Dallas Cowboys
Let’s start with the team that draws more attention to anyone else. Whether you love them or hate them, you can’t argue the talent with the Cowboys. From every avenue there is fantasy goodness oozing out of this team. The quarterback came into his own last year (and got his fumbling under control) having his most productive season of his short career. The running backs are a three headed monster, with explosive speed (Felix Jones), brawn and muscle (Barber) and what some consider the most complete back, Choice. Miles Austin realized his talent on the field last year, exploding for a Pro Bowl season. You KNOW this team is loaded when Jason Witten had a “down” year, yet still had over 1,000 yards. To top it all off, the ‘Boys go out and draft Dez Bryant, who some have already put into the Hall of Fame. Hell, even the defense should be a fantasy monster!
Undervalued:
We can probably list a couple people here; it’s very difficult to narrow it down. Normally I am going to list only one, but some situations just dictate a rule change, and this team is it. Tony Romo had a great season, has a Pro Bowl wide receiver, another wide receiver that fans claim has Pro Bowl potential if he keeps his head in the game, three running backs that could be starters on most teams, and a tight end that is his “go-to guy.” On top of all this, the Jerry Jones, desperate to forget about passing on Randy Moss years ago, went out and traded up for Dez Bryant. But more important then all of these weapons was Romo’s growth as a quarterback. In 2008, Romo threw 14 interceptions and put the ball on the turf seven times. In 2009, he cut down those numbers to 9 and 4, respectively. This is a player that is growing still as a player, and has the weapons to put up Aaron Rodgers type numbers. Pass on the top four or five, and wait until round four to grab this guy. Next year, you might not be able to get him past the second round.
Now normally, I would only put one player on the undervalued list. However, with a team with this many fantasy stars, it’s difficult to narrow it down. Miles Austin, according to MockDraftCentral.com, is going as late as 27th overall. That may seem to be right for some people, but it’s simply too low. Austin is comparable in numbers to Andre Johnson, who is going anywhere from six to nine in drafts. Call me crazy all you want, but the numbers back me up. KC Joyner ran the numbers on ESPN.com, but Miles Austin bested Johnson in short passes (10 yards down field), deep passes (20-29), tied in bomb length passes (30 yards or more), and overall yards per attempt 11.2 yards per attempt to 9.9. Now sure, you might say he’s a one year wonder. However, I would ask you then why do you trust Ray Rice? What about Chris Johnson? Sure, his rookie year was good, but it wasn’t anything like last year. The fact is, sometimes you have to go off your gut. And my gut is telling me this kid is legit, and should be going early in round two. Anytime after pick 15 is a steal.
Sleeper:
I know the trendy pick here is a surly rookie wide receiver that refuses to carry the pads for the grizzled vet. But where I think the sleeper value on this team is actually comes from that grizzled vet, Roy Williams. Look, Williams will never develop to his pure potential, and he probably would benefit from being dealt to Chicago to play for Mike Martz (his coach during his most productive season). However, Williams missed a game, and only started 13 of the games, and yet his numbers may surprise. Williams contributed 38 catches, 596 yards and 7 touchdowns. Are these numbers that will win your league? I seriously doubt it. But a man playing for a new contract (he knows he is getting cut in this offseason) showed up in excellent shape and had a great preseason rapport with Romo. On average he is being picked 167, or 58th amongst wide receivers, among the Bernard Berrian and Nate Washington, and quite often he is undrafted. This is possible late round gold in your draft.
Bust:
I have a feeling that the person I put on this list will either make me look good, or make me look foolish, and I may even garner hate mail. The bust on the team (per his ADP) is Dez Bryant. Look, the kid is LOADED with talent. He showed up, worked hard, and wants to be a superstar. However, this is a kid who is learning a new system, has battled injuries and off the field issues in college, and already suffered a high ankle sprain that will take away valuable practice time spent learning with the first team offense. I know that Bryant can be a star, and one day will. In a keeper league, draft away and stash away. But in a one year league, where there is only one ball to go around, Bryant is going to slot in behind Miles Austin (not a one year wonder), Jason Witten, Roy Williams, Felix Jones, Marian Barber and Tashard Choice. That one ball has a HELL of a lot of mouths to feed. Also, the fact that Bryant is being used as a return man usually means that his role in the offense will be minimized. Temper your enthusiasm.
Philadelphia Eagles:
It’s a new regime in Philly. The Kevin Kolb era has officially begun, as has the Shady McCoy backfield. Gone are fantasy stalwarts Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook as the team looks to get younger, and many would argue, healthier. However, you know the old saying, “Be careful what you wish for…” Well Philly fans, as a Jets fan I can tell you that I would have killed for the success you had for the last decade. You better hope Kolb is the real deal…
Undervalued:
Andy Reid loves to throw that pigskin around. He believes that a four yard screen pass is equivalent to a first down run play. Enter Jeremy Maclin, stage left. Maclin is a big kid (6’, 198 lbs) who can RUN (4.48 40 yard dash). Unlike his counterpart (more on him in a minute), Maclin can get physical on short passes and has the breakaway speed to get plenty of RAC (run after catch). Going 65th overall, and the 24th wide receiver taken in drafts, Maclin has all the tools to be a third round pick as soon as next year. All he needs is to stay healthy (hey, don’t we all!) and to have the opportunity. Both of those come this year; drafting him after the fourth round is great value.
Sleeper:
I know a lot of people love LeSean McCoy this year, and truthfully he is going late enough that I don’t think he will bust. However, this team took carries away from McCoy in the red zone, and especially at the goal line, over and over last year. Reid has vowed not to use Leonard Weaver in more then a fullback role. Thus, the deep sleeper is Mike Bell. Once the super-sleeper in the Broncos backfield, Bell earned his owners great value last year as a member of the Saints. He stole countless TDs from Pierre Thomas, and will likely get the rock at the goal line again here. Why else would you bring in a TD specialist? As the 57th RB selected and being taken around 200 overall (if at all), he is a fantastic late round pick. Remember, it’s picks like these that win drafts, not taking Adrian Peterson in round one.
Bust:
I hate to do it, really I do, because I love watching him, but DeSean Jackson is going way too high. Currently being taken as the 8th wide receiver and 25th overall, Jackson accrued most of his value by way of deep passes, something Kevin Kolb doesn’t excel at. Kolb is an ideal west coast offense guy, while Jackson loved McNabb’s big arm. If you subtract those long passes, you wind up with Santana Moss. He will have a couple huge games, but Jackson has all the makings to be a major bust. I wouldn’t touch him until the fourth round. You’ve been warned.
Giants:
Living just outside of New York, I have plenty of chances to watch this team. This team tremendously disappointed last year, fought amongst themselves, and had the fans on talk radio ready to jump off the Brooklyn Bridge. However, amongst fantasy circles, the Giants had big surprise players and even bigger (or fatter, if you’re talking about Jacobs) disappointments.
Undervalued:
The Giants offensive line broke down last year as it continued to age. So the logical thing to do is to improve it in the offseason right? I mean, this is a team that has always been built on that bruising running, smashmouth football. So it made perfect sense to draft a project defensive end to add to an already deep defensive line. Wait, what? This O-Line will continue to age, making Eli run for his life. That’s where Hakeem Nicks comes in. Sure, I’m not going out on a limb here since everyone seems to love him. That said, I’m not as high on him as some of the experts. Nicks has battled injuries since college, and just last weekend suffered a hyper-extended knee in practice. Luckily, Nicks is fine but the worry is still there. Blessed with huge size, hands like Velcro, and breakaway speed, Nicks has all the tools to be a monster. If you can get him in round five, consider it a steal. Just don’t reach for him.
Sleeper:
The time has come for Ahmad Bradshaw to come into his own. A quick, shifty back with excellent hands, Bradshaw has the makings of a player that could be a major part of your team while costing you very little. Being taken as the 34th running back and falling to the eighth round, Bradshaw can give you numbers usually found in rounds three and four. And considering he is going after Reggie Bush and Darren McFadden, Bradshaw is a steal. Last season he had two broken feet for most of the season, and still played very well. The feet are healed, and he is ready to break out.
Bust:
Now we get to Bradshaw’s counterpart, the giant Giant, Brandon Jacobs. A couple of years back, Jacobs would be murder on short yardage or goal line carries. However, he forgot somewhere along the line how to do the things he used to do, namely run hard and run over defenders. As bad as Jacobs was last year, he broke off a 74 yard reception against the Cowboys. Subtract that from his stat line, and then see where you get. Hint, it ain’t pretty. Considering you have to draft this one team stud in the fifth round, it’s a complete waste. Jacobs did more dancing then Ocho Cinqo on Dancing With the Stars last year, and it showed in his stats. Keep away from this big fella unless he falls to the eighth round.
Washington Redskins:
I really wish there was something nice I could say about this team. I mean, they wanted to go about it and do it the right way. They wanted to build from the ground up, and develop a solid foundation to help for years to come. So, it makes total sense that you trade a high draft pick for an older quarterback on a one year deal. Sure, that makes sense… You now have McNabb with no one to really throw the ball too, and a bunch of running backs that don’t have much left in the tank. It’s going to be a long season in Washington.
Undervalued:
I hate to say it, because I know the issues that Shanahan is murder on fantasy owners, but I think Portis is undervalued. Going in round nine, and being selected as the 40th running back off the board, Portis knows the system and the blocking scheme better than anyone in Washington. Granted, the concussion issues could knock him out for the season, but a starting running back being selected this late is worth the gamble. Portis has been one of the running backs with the highest carry total in the past four years, and should continue so barring injury. If you can grab him in the seventh or eighth round, it’s the type of pick that could pay major dividends down the road.
Sleeper:
We all saw what McNabb did with DeSean Jackson last season. McNabb throws a great deep ball, and a wide receiver that can break off his route on a busted play is an ideal match. That brings us to Santana Moss. Now, do I believe that Moss can be DeSean Jackson? HELL no. But, do I think that Moss could be a very useful bye week fill in and produce a few huge games this season? Absolutely. Look, McNabb has to throw the ball to someone, and he doesn’t have a lot of options. Now factor in the tough defenses he is going to match up with, and Donovan is going to be running for his life. Someone is going to catch the balls though, as we know McNabb will throw for at least 2,400 yards this year. In round seven or later, you could do worse than selecting McNabb’s deep threat.
Bust:
With that, we come to McNabb. This is going to be quick and easy as a lot of it was just said. Bad offensive line. Bad wide receivers. Tough defenses. Injury prone. Running backs that are injury prone/slow/waste of roster spot. Someone is going to see the numbers from last year and feel like they are getting a great value. Don’t let that someone be you. Pass on him and take a flier on a running back or wide receiver. You won’t be missing anything.
Dallas Cowboys
Let’s start with the team that draws more attention to anyone else. Whether you love them or hate them, you can’t argue the talent with the Cowboys. From every avenue there is fantasy goodness oozing out of this team. The quarterback came into his own last year (and got his fumbling under control) having his most productive season of his short career. The running backs are a three headed monster, with explosive speed (Felix Jones), brawn and muscle (Barber) and what some consider the most complete back, Choice. Miles Austin realized his talent on the field last year, exploding for a Pro Bowl season. You KNOW this team is loaded when Jason Witten had a “down” year, yet still had over 1,000 yards. To top it all off, the ‘Boys go out and draft Dez Bryant, who some have already put into the Hall of Fame. Hell, even the defense should be a fantasy monster!
Undervalued:
We can probably list a couple people here; it’s very difficult to narrow it down. Normally I am going to list only one, but some situations just dictate a rule change, and this team is it. Tony Romo had a great season, has a Pro Bowl wide receiver, another wide receiver that fans claim has Pro Bowl potential if he keeps his head in the game, three running backs that could be starters on most teams, and a tight end that is his “go-to guy.” On top of all this, the Jerry Jones, desperate to forget about passing on Randy Moss years ago, went out and traded up for Dez Bryant. But more important then all of these weapons was Romo’s growth as a quarterback. In 2008, Romo threw 14 interceptions and put the ball on the turf seven times. In 2009, he cut down those numbers to 9 and 4, respectively. This is a player that is growing still as a player, and has the weapons to put up Aaron Rodgers type numbers. Pass on the top four or five, and wait until round four to grab this guy. Next year, you might not be able to get him past the second round.
Now normally, I would only put one player on the undervalued list. However, with a team with this many fantasy stars, it’s difficult to narrow it down. Miles Austin, according to MockDraftCentral.com, is going as late as 27th overall. That may seem to be right for some people, but it’s simply too low. Austin is comparable in numbers to Andre Johnson, who is going anywhere from six to nine in drafts. Call me crazy all you want, but the numbers back me up. KC Joyner ran the numbers on ESPN.com, but Miles Austin bested Johnson in short passes (10 yards down field), deep passes (20-29), tied in bomb length passes (30 yards or more), and overall yards per attempt 11.2 yards per attempt to 9.9. Now sure, you might say he’s a one year wonder. However, I would ask you then why do you trust Ray Rice? What about Chris Johnson? Sure, his rookie year was good, but it wasn’t anything like last year. The fact is, sometimes you have to go off your gut. And my gut is telling me this kid is legit, and should be going early in round two. Anytime after pick 15 is a steal.
Sleeper:
I know the trendy pick here is a surly rookie wide receiver that refuses to carry the pads for the grizzled vet. But where I think the sleeper value on this team is actually comes from that grizzled vet, Roy Williams. Look, Williams will never develop to his pure potential, and he probably would benefit from being dealt to Chicago to play for Mike Martz (his coach during his most productive season). However, Williams missed a game, and only started 13 of the games, and yet his numbers may surprise. Williams contributed 38 catches, 596 yards and 7 touchdowns. Are these numbers that will win your league? I seriously doubt it. But a man playing for a new contract (he knows he is getting cut in this offseason) showed up in excellent shape and had a great preseason rapport with Romo. On average he is being picked 167, or 58th amongst wide receivers, among the Bernard Berrian and Nate Washington, and quite often he is undrafted. This is possible late round gold in your draft.
Bust:
I have a feeling that the person I put on this list will either make me look good, or make me look foolish, and I may even garner hate mail. The bust on the team (per his ADP) is Dez Bryant. Look, the kid is LOADED with talent. He showed up, worked hard, and wants to be a superstar. However, this is a kid who is learning a new system, has battled injuries and off the field issues in college, and already suffered a high ankle sprain that will take away valuable practice time spent learning with the first team offense. I know that Bryant can be a star, and one day will. In a keeper league, draft away and stash away. But in a one year league, where there is only one ball to go around, Bryant is going to slot in behind Miles Austin (not a one year wonder), Jason Witten, Roy Williams, Felix Jones, Marian Barber and Tashard Choice. That one ball has a HELL of a lot of mouths to feed. Also, the fact that Bryant is being used as a return man usually means that his role in the offense will be minimized. Temper your enthusiasm.
Philadelphia Eagles:
It’s a new regime in Philly. The Kevin Kolb era has officially begun, as has the Shady McCoy backfield. Gone are fantasy stalwarts Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook as the team looks to get younger, and many would argue, healthier. However, you know the old saying, “Be careful what you wish for…” Well Philly fans, as a Jets fan I can tell you that I would have killed for the success you had for the last decade. You better hope Kolb is the real deal…
Undervalued:
Andy Reid loves to throw that pigskin around. He believes that a four yard screen pass is equivalent to a first down run play. Enter Jeremy Maclin, stage left. Maclin is a big kid (6’, 198 lbs) who can RUN (4.48 40 yard dash). Unlike his counterpart (more on him in a minute), Maclin can get physical on short passes and has the breakaway speed to get plenty of RAC (run after catch). Going 65th overall, and the 24th wide receiver taken in drafts, Maclin has all the tools to be a third round pick as soon as next year. All he needs is to stay healthy (hey, don’t we all!) and to have the opportunity. Both of those come this year; drafting him after the fourth round is great value.
Sleeper:
I know a lot of people love LeSean McCoy this year, and truthfully he is going late enough that I don’t think he will bust. However, this team took carries away from McCoy in the red zone, and especially at the goal line, over and over last year. Reid has vowed not to use Leonard Weaver in more then a fullback role. Thus, the deep sleeper is Mike Bell. Once the super-sleeper in the Broncos backfield, Bell earned his owners great value last year as a member of the Saints. He stole countless TDs from Pierre Thomas, and will likely get the rock at the goal line again here. Why else would you bring in a TD specialist? As the 57th RB selected and being taken around 200 overall (if at all), he is a fantastic late round pick. Remember, it’s picks like these that win drafts, not taking Adrian Peterson in round one.
Bust:
I hate to do it, really I do, because I love watching him, but DeSean Jackson is going way too high. Currently being taken as the 8th wide receiver and 25th overall, Jackson accrued most of his value by way of deep passes, something Kevin Kolb doesn’t excel at. Kolb is an ideal west coast offense guy, while Jackson loved McNabb’s big arm. If you subtract those long passes, you wind up with Santana Moss. He will have a couple huge games, but Jackson has all the makings to be a major bust. I wouldn’t touch him until the fourth round. You’ve been warned.
Giants:
Living just outside of New York, I have plenty of chances to watch this team. This team tremendously disappointed last year, fought amongst themselves, and had the fans on talk radio ready to jump off the Brooklyn Bridge. However, amongst fantasy circles, the Giants had big surprise players and even bigger (or fatter, if you’re talking about Jacobs) disappointments.
Undervalued:
The Giants offensive line broke down last year as it continued to age. So the logical thing to do is to improve it in the offseason right? I mean, this is a team that has always been built on that bruising running, smashmouth football. So it made perfect sense to draft a project defensive end to add to an already deep defensive line. Wait, what? This O-Line will continue to age, making Eli run for his life. That’s where Hakeem Nicks comes in. Sure, I’m not going out on a limb here since everyone seems to love him. That said, I’m not as high on him as some of the experts. Nicks has battled injuries since college, and just last weekend suffered a hyper-extended knee in practice. Luckily, Nicks is fine but the worry is still there. Blessed with huge size, hands like Velcro, and breakaway speed, Nicks has all the tools to be a monster. If you can get him in round five, consider it a steal. Just don’t reach for him.
Sleeper:
The time has come for Ahmad Bradshaw to come into his own. A quick, shifty back with excellent hands, Bradshaw has the makings of a player that could be a major part of your team while costing you very little. Being taken as the 34th running back and falling to the eighth round, Bradshaw can give you numbers usually found in rounds three and four. And considering he is going after Reggie Bush and Darren McFadden, Bradshaw is a steal. Last season he had two broken feet for most of the season, and still played very well. The feet are healed, and he is ready to break out.
Bust:
Now we get to Bradshaw’s counterpart, the giant Giant, Brandon Jacobs. A couple of years back, Jacobs would be murder on short yardage or goal line carries. However, he forgot somewhere along the line how to do the things he used to do, namely run hard and run over defenders. As bad as Jacobs was last year, he broke off a 74 yard reception against the Cowboys. Subtract that from his stat line, and then see where you get. Hint, it ain’t pretty. Considering you have to draft this one team stud in the fifth round, it’s a complete waste. Jacobs did more dancing then Ocho Cinqo on Dancing With the Stars last year, and it showed in his stats. Keep away from this big fella unless he falls to the eighth round.
Washington Redskins:
I really wish there was something nice I could say about this team. I mean, they wanted to go about it and do it the right way. They wanted to build from the ground up, and develop a solid foundation to help for years to come. So, it makes total sense that you trade a high draft pick for an older quarterback on a one year deal. Sure, that makes sense… You now have McNabb with no one to really throw the ball too, and a bunch of running backs that don’t have much left in the tank. It’s going to be a long season in Washington.
Undervalued:
I hate to say it, because I know the issues that Shanahan is murder on fantasy owners, but I think Portis is undervalued. Going in round nine, and being selected as the 40th running back off the board, Portis knows the system and the blocking scheme better than anyone in Washington. Granted, the concussion issues could knock him out for the season, but a starting running back being selected this late is worth the gamble. Portis has been one of the running backs with the highest carry total in the past four years, and should continue so barring injury. If you can grab him in the seventh or eighth round, it’s the type of pick that could pay major dividends down the road.
Sleeper:
We all saw what McNabb did with DeSean Jackson last season. McNabb throws a great deep ball, and a wide receiver that can break off his route on a busted play is an ideal match. That brings us to Santana Moss. Now, do I believe that Moss can be DeSean Jackson? HELL no. But, do I think that Moss could be a very useful bye week fill in and produce a few huge games this season? Absolutely. Look, McNabb has to throw the ball to someone, and he doesn’t have a lot of options. Now factor in the tough defenses he is going to match up with, and Donovan is going to be running for his life. Someone is going to catch the balls though, as we know McNabb will throw for at least 2,400 yards this year. In round seven or later, you could do worse than selecting McNabb’s deep threat.
Bust:
With that, we come to McNabb. This is going to be quick and easy as a lot of it was just said. Bad offensive line. Bad wide receivers. Tough defenses. Injury prone. Running backs that are injury prone/slow/waste of roster spot. Someone is going to see the numbers from last year and feel like they are getting a great value. Don’t let that someone be you. Pass on him and take a flier on a running back or wide receiver. You won’t be missing anything.
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