NFL WEEK 4 LOOK AHEAD

NFL WEEK 4 LOOK AHEAD
By Andy Benoit, www.NFLTouchdown.com

Detroit @ Chicago
Some good news for the Bears is that Jay Cutler has a passer rating of 110.4 over the past four quarters, and Devin Hester has caught at least four passes in all three games this year. While the passing game is working, surprisingly enough, Chicago can’t move the ball on the ground. Matt Forte is averaging a paltry 2.5 yards per carry. He hasn’t been getting to the second level, which means he hasn’t had an opportunity to showcase his marvelous fluidity.
An interesting note about Detroit’s victory is that in their win, Calvin Johnson had only five catches for 49 yards. If the Lions can at least win enough to stay halfway relevant, people will soon describe Johnson as the best receiver in football.
Pick: Bears

Cincinnati @ Cleveland
One thing I’ve never been able to stand is when a head coach, especially a new head coach, does a crappy job and, in what amounts to a flimsy prayer, tries to reverse his fortune by replacing quarterbacks. Brady Quinn deserves more of an opportunity than just two-and-a-half games to get this pathetic team off the ground. He’s far from the sole problem. Scott Linehan threw Marc Bulger under the bus like this last season in St. Louis. Linehan rightfully got fired shortly afterwards. Is Browns owner Randy Lerner paying attention?
Pick: Bengals

Oakland @ Houston
Call me diabolic, but it’s kind of fun watching the world turn against JaMarcus Russell like this. All of the sudden, everyone seems to be looking at the former No. 1 overall pick and saying What the hell? Russell is exactly the quarterback Houston’s defense needs to face if the Texans are going to get on track.
The only reason to watch this game is to see Nnamdi Asomugha matched up against Andre Johnson. It doesn’t get much better than that.
Pick: Texans

Seattle @ Indianapolis
What’s up with Joseph Addai? He looked sluggish last season because of injuries, but he’s healthy now and still looking sluggish. Addai used to have one of the best first step in football. His initial cuts were always outstanding. Now, he doesn’t even have the best first step or initial cut in the Indy backfield; swift first-round rookie Donald Brown does. Doesn’t matter how Addai plays this week….Peyton Manning has been nearly perfect thus far.
Pick: Colts
For the rest of the Week 4 games, click here or visit http://www.nfltouchdown.com/nfl-week-4-previews-and-predictions/

Fantasy Football Sleepers/Creepers - 9/30

Fantasy Football Sleepers/Creepers Our thoughts on some possible undervalued and overvalued players...

Updated September 29, 2009  JunkyardJake.Com

Glen Coffee/Vernon Davis ,RB/TE

It took a couple day's to figure out what type of foot/ankle and/or strain/sprain it was that sent Frank Gore to the lockerroom on the first offensive snap of the game this past Sunday, but what we do know for almost certain, is that we probably won't be seeing Mr. Gore until after San Franciso's week 6 bye. This makes Glen Coffee a great pickup this week, especially against the clumsy Rams defense.

Vernon Davis, who just had a career game of 7 catches for 96 yards and 2 TDs, is another interesting prospect who should see more chances with Frank Gore out. Provided that you are not holding a grudge because you had Davis on your team in any of the past 3 years, he is definitely worth picking up as well.


Mike Wallace ,WR

Sorry 60 Minutes Mike Wallace, you are pretty cool, but Pittsburgh's rookie receiver is my new favorite Mike Wallace. Wallace can flat-out fly down the field, and unlike Limas Sweed, he also seems to hang onto the ball after Ben Roethlisberger hits him in the hands. There is a good chance that the rookie will assume the deep threat role that Nate Washington filled for the Steelers last year, so he should be worth stashing on your roster.


Jerome Harrison ,RB

- It was against the tough Ravens defense, but he came through with 16 carries for 52 yards, also converting 7 pass targets into 5 catches for 33 yards. Not a tremendous statistical day, but it's safe to say Harrison strengthened his claim to the Browns #2 RB spot because James Davis did virtually nothing with his chances. Of course the Browns #2 job is a rather lucrative position these days, since Jamal Lewis is likely to remain as reliable as your pothead friend when you ask him to pick you up at the airport.


Johnny Knox ,WR

- As far as the Earl Bennett/Johnny Knox sweepstakes goes, the apparent edge goes to Earl Bennett this week, as he finished with 4 catches for 80 yards. However, the box score was a little deceiving in terms of the Bennett/Knox rotation. While Knox had 1 catch for 7, he was targeted 3 times, and twice in the redzone. Bennett was targeted only 4 times in total, with no redzone targets. Knox still seems to be the guy with the best upside given his exceptional speed and ability to gain consistent separation.


Jamaal Charles ,RB

- Anyone else getting the nagging suspicion that Larry Johnson is about to get cancelled like a Jeff Foxworthy TV show ? Johnson certainly seems to be running more like Larry the Cable Guy these days, with 136 total rush yards, and a YPC of only 2.5. Meanwhile, 2nd year runningback Jamaal Charles seemed to provide a spark when he was given the chance this week, gaining 6 yards per carry in limited duty (6 carries for 36 yards). Charles was also fairly active in the passing game, with 4 targets.

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Fred Taylor/Laurence Maroney ,RB

- Laurence Maroney was once again hiding in his injury bunker against the Falcons this week, allowing Fred Taylor to party like it was 1999. Taylor ended his productive day with 21 carries for 105 yards and 1 TD, a statline that will no doubt have him showing up in week four fantasy lineups. That's fine if it works, but with the New England runningback rotation still looking like a covert operation, and this weeks matchup versus Baltimore, it's probably best to steer clear of the Patriots running game altogether.


Bryant Johnson ,WR

- On the surface, it looks like the Lions found themselves a viable #2 receiver this week in Bryant Johnson, afterall, he finished the day with 4 catches for 73 yards and a touchdown. However, before anyone goes starting Bryant over Santonio Holmes or Steve Smith this week, also consider that Bryant was targeted 13 times, meaning he only caught 30% of the balls thrown to him.

There seems to be maybe two conclusions here - 1) On the plays where Calvin Johnson isn't triple covered, Matthew Stafford will gradually become more comfortable throwing it in his direction more often and 2) If you put one of those big 35 LB Rubbermaid trash receptacles in the corner of the endzone with a careless free safety covering, chances are any NFL QB will be able to hit it for a 21 yard touchdown.


Eddie Royal ,WR

- OK Josh McDaniels, we get it, you are a super-genius who can win football games with marginal talent receivers like Jabar Gaffney that you worked with in New England, while leaving Eddie Royal on the sidelines playing checkers with the offensive coordinator. Terrific, we are really impressed, just don't come whining to us when your defense lets you down and actually need to score some points.


Jamal Lewis ,RB

-So, was Jamal Lewis really injured in week three, or has he come to the realization that the Browns are just so hapless that he decided to call in sick on Sunday because he figured playing golf with Michael Jordan was a much more constructive use of his time?... ..(nasally voice)...yeah coach this is Jamal...(cough..cough).., I'm really sick today, I'll try to make it in next week... That's ok Jamal, you get well, it was a little more interesting watching Jerome Harrison anyway.


Robert Meachem ,WR

- Maybe someday we will all have that miraculous Robert Meachem story to tell our grandkids. You know the one, it kindof goes like...'Yeah, I picked Robert Meachem in the 14th round of my fantasy draft, and he went on to have a 1,100 yard 12 TD season just like I knew he could'. Alas, we may need to wait yet another year for Meachem to do anything noteworthy, he is just too inconsistent to depend on for fantasy purposes right now.

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Week 3 game previews

Ever have one of those epiphanies that’s just so radical you spend the first few days in a soft state of shock, waiting for its truth to be disproved and for your world to restore its familiar order? Every person’s life has at least a few of these epiphanies. (The one we can all relate to is the childhood revelation about Santa Clause.)
I had one of these epiphanies after the Dolphins-Colts game last Monday night. As I rose from my chair and headed out the door to run some postgame errands, I found myself thinking “Gee, running the ball truly does not matter anymore.”
I’ve long considered myself a football purist, which is why I have not enjoyed this realization that running the ball does not matter. That’s why I’m still in a soft state of shock. Deep down, I already know my mind won’t be changed on this. As much as it pains me to say, running the football does not matter in the NFL. What matters is quarterbacking.
It hasn’t always been this way, of course. There was a time not long ago when running the ball did matter. And it’s my hope and belief that there will come a time when running the ball matters again.
But that time is not now. Right now, quarterbacks matter and running backs, essentially, do not. Look at the Week 2 primetime games. The Dolphins rushed for 239 yards on 49 attempts. They dominated the time of possession (45:07). They dictated that game. And, in the end, they lost. Why? Because Peyton Manning torched them for a touchdown strike early and a touchdown strike late. The Colts had a superstar quarterback and the Dolphins did not.
The night before, Manning’s younger brother beat a Cowboys club that rushed for 251 yards. The outcome was a direct result of quarterbacking: Eli Manning (330 yards) had two touchdowns and no picks, while Tony Romo (127 yards) had one touchdown and three picks.
Yes, it’s only two games, but the trend is ingrained deeper than that. Just look at last year’s Super Bowl contenders. The Steelers – long considered the classic run-first organization in pro football – ranked 22nd on the ground. They won a title behind Ben Roethlisberger’s epic 256-yard passing performance. They beat a the Cardinals that had the league’s 31st-ranked rushing attack during the regular season.
It’s very possible that this is all a big coincidence, which is why I’m not ready to vehemently defend my new theory that quarterback play is all that really matters these days. But, obviously, I’m feeling comfortable enough with my new thought to go public with it.
I’ve put the idea out there. In a month or two, we’ll re-examine and see how things stand. But just know, these days, I’m a football purist watching NFL running games with a skeptical eye.

Let’s run through the Week 3 matchups.

Washington @ Detroit
It’s not a good sign for Washington that inside possession outlets Chris Cooley and Antwaan Randle El are the team’s two most productive pass catchers through two weeks. That suggests Jason Campbell and the offense really haven’t take a full step when it comes to opening up the passing game.
A lot of people are picking the Lions to end their 19-game losing streak this week, but I question that interior offensive line’s ability to contain Albert Haynesworth. Center Dominic Raiola is nasty, but he’ll need help from guards Daniel Loper and Stephen Peterman, two career backups whose strength has never matched their considerable size.
Pick: Redskins

Green Bay @ St. Louis
A great way to get comfortable in a new 3-4 scheme is to face the Rams offense. St. Louis has scored seven points in two games, proving right every doubter who scoffed at this weak receiving corps.
Pick: Packers

San Francisco @ Minnesota
An intriguing matchup between two clubs that, according to my new anti-running theory, won’t play deep into January (should they even make the playoffs). The Niners and Vikings both ask their quarterbacks to manage the offense while the star running back takes care of earning the W. In Minnesota’s case, the star running back might just be good enough to single-handedly debunk my theory. It’s going to be a blast watching Adrian Peterson go up against Patrick Willis.
Many are wondering, Are the 49ers for real? The answer is Yes, by default. They appear to be the best team in the lousy NFC West. But as far as being a contender beyond that, let’s see how the offensive line’s pass protection looks once the leaves fall off the trees. Just going off what I saw on film last season, I’m not sold on Joe Staley at left tackle, I definitely don’t like Eric Heitmann at center (wait for some wear and tear to kick in and you’ll see the savvy veteran abandon his fundamentals) and guard Chilo Rachal is potentially dominant but still very raw.
For this game, San Francisco must leave the West Coast and play an early game indoors.
Pick: Vikings

Click here to view the rest of the Week 3 games analysis, or visit: http://www.nfltouchdown.com/nfl-week-3-previews-and-why-running-the-ball-no-longer-matters/

Week 3 Mike Bowser's Player Projections

Today we released Mike Bowser's Player Projections for week 3.

Check them out here

Fantasy Football Sleepers/Creepers - 9/22

Fantasy Football Sleepers/Creepers Our thoughts on some possible undervalued and overvalued players...

Updated September 22, 2009  JunkyardJake.Com

Pierre Thomas ,RB

-A fantasy outcast just one short week ago, Pierre Thomas will likely find himself thrust back into significant playing time as a result of Mike Bell's untimely knee injury. It's easy to have a short memory concerning Thomas, since he was sucked into the injury nebulous over the first couple weeks, but remember, he was the guy who effectively replaced Reggie Bush down the stretch last season, with 909 total yards and 9 TDs, mostly accumulated after week 11. Thomas has had a few weeks to recover from his own knee injury, and was ready to go in week 2, so he makes a decent guy to pickup for RB help if someone hastily dropped him in your league.


Donald Brown ,RB

-There is no doubt that the Miami defense had something to do with it, but Joseph Addai gave his 2009 fantasy owners some unpleasant flashbacks from 2008 when he stumbled along to a 6 carry/32 yard performance this Monday night. Meanwhile, Donald Brown gave a glimpse of his potential with a 6.5 YPC, a 24 yard catch and 1 TD in his role as Addai's #2. Even if Addai remains the starter, Brown should absolutely not be left on your waiver wire, and Addai owners may want to mobilize some trade offers.


Torry Holt/Mike Sims-Walker ,WR

-If you can't help yawning at the thought of picking up Torry Holt, you are not alone, there is really nothing exciting about a 33 year-old receiver in a dysfunctional passing offense. However, Holt is still a savvy player and he represents the #1 option for Jacksonville, evidenced by the fact that David Garrard looked his way 11 times this past week. Mike Sims-Walker is a more interesting, albeit risky prospect, with good size, great hands, decent speed, and solid instincts. Sims-Walker gets his chance as Jacksonvilles #2 wideout now that Troy Williamson is out for the season.


Laurent Robinson ,WR

-It must be a lonely job as the only guy trying to help the Rams move the ball down the field in their passing game, but Laurent Robinson is that guy so far. At 6-2 Robinson has good size, shows decent burst, and seems to have improved his route-running compared to his first couple seasons in the league. We'll see if he can keep it up, but so far he is the Rams #1 receiver with 21 targets, including 4 redzone opportunities.


Justin Forsett ,RB

-Justin Forsett is quietly becoming a factor in the Seattle offense - this week he finished with 35 rushing yards on 5 carries along with 6 catches for 57 yards. Although Edgerrin James is technically the primary backup to Julius Jones, it may turn out that Forsett retains the most value. Unfortunately, you can't teach size, and Forsett's 5-8, 190 lb stature will almost certainly preclude him from being a lead back in the NFL, but he is definitely worth picking up as a contingency plan for Julius Jones, or even a possible flex option.

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Donnie Avery ,WR

-It's way too early to give up on Avery, but there were doubts about the 2nd year receiver being able to handle a #1 receiver role given his smallish stature, and those doubts may be materializing a bit. In fact, word is that teammates voted him 'Most likely Player to be Adversely Affected by a Strong Gust of Wind', and at 185 lbs, he is very susceptible to getting mugged at the line by larger cornerbacks. He probably has nearly no trade value, but Avery is absolutely not startable right now.


Earl Bennett ,WR

-In just one week, Earl Bennett went from potential centerpiece of the Bears passing game with 16 targets, to the receiver who was sent to the bench and then convincingly outplayed by a rookie. Truth is, rookie Johnny Knox has no business making a consistent impact this year, but he does have better speed and big-play ability compared to Earl Bennett. Nonetheless, both players should probably be banished from starting lineups until Jay Cutler figures out who he wants to throw to.


Ray Rice ,RB

-One of the darlings of this years preseason hype machine, Ray Rice is so far turning out to be the complementary player in the Ravens running game that is consistent with his diminutive physique and unique passing down skills. So far, Rices' alleged backup Willis McGahee has received 25 carries to Rice's 28, thier yardage is almost identical, and McGahee has the clear TD advantage, 4 to zero. It certainly would not be unreasonable to contemplate trading Rice if you can upgrade another position on your fantasy team.


Brandon Marshall ,WR

-Aside from trying to prove he was more eccentric than Michael Crabtree, Marshall didn't accomplish much over the offseason, and his underachievement has so far carried over into the regular season. The new Broncos passing offense clearly does not rely on a featured pair of wideouts, so there is a fairly good chance that Marshall won't be a 1,200 yard guy this year. He does however represent decent trade bait if another owner in your league is seeking another flaky, overrated receiver to pair up with Terrell Owens on their roster.


Joey Galloway ,WR

-Given that the Jets bottled up Randy Moss pretty well, and Wes Welker was apparently abducted by aliens 2 minutes before gametime, Joey Galloway was Tom Brady's most popular target this past week, with 13 looks. Unfortunately, that seemed to be more than the 38 year-old receiver could handle at this point in his career, as he ended the day with only 5 catches for 53 yards. When Welker returns, Galloway can go back to planning his retirement fishing trips.

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The True Guru goes 4-3 in week 2

Written By Todd Farino

www.thetrueguru.com

Another year of bringing you the exciting updates on The GURU Leagues. In the belief of full disclosure, I want to let you know how I’m doing using my strategies and the very same advice I offer you. I play in several different leagues with ranging skill levels and different rules. I am in two expert leagues, and three expert level leagues including the Blog Talk Radio Listener League.

In week 2, I finished 4-3 after having a huge week 1 at 7-0. I didn’t have nearly the luck or performances I had in week one, but I still managed to hold on for 4 wins and run my season record to 11-3.

My losses occurred in the JAIL, Coast-2-Coast, and Dynasty VII leagues, where my teams performed poorly. I felt I was cheated out of a win in the JAIL league losing 90-78, but I had Wes Welker in the lineup and he was a very late scratch. This is a .5 PPR league and Welker consistently scores 15-20 points. I also had a dude Joseph Addai with Donald Brown on the bench.

I did run my record to 2-0 in the Blog Talk Radio league defeating a tough opponent in Sean Gordon (aka GO IRISH). Again, my team was lead by Drew Brees, but I had all around good performances with Antonio Bryant OUT.

I am also 2-0 in both the FFS Expert League and Junkyard Jake’s expert league. IN Junkyard Jake’s league I’ve won both match ups by 1 point each, so I’ve been very lucky there.

In the Fantasy Football Search Expert League I have so far dominated with over 300 points scored in two weeks. I beat my good buddy Jeff Mans in a tough match up in week 2 141-126.

My goal every week is to go 4-3 at the very least and so far I’ve accomplished that. Expecting any better then that is asking allot, but its clearly. Possible.


FANTASY FOOTBALL LEAGUE MANAGER TIP OF THE WEEK
Make sure you advance scout your players’ match up and health. If the player has a brutal match up or is an injury risk its good to pick up someone from free agency to consider starting. In order to choose a replacement player, consider using our PASS/TARGET report, GOAL LINE report, and weekly picks to determine who best to fill in. Also check out our Hot 8 report for the hottest players available and the Fantasy Football Tonight blog and podcasts for more great information. If you get allot of positive feedback on your replacement, bench the starter. You can’t go wrong.

New Goal Line Report Released!

Check it out guys. If you are looking for who is getting all the touches near the goal line or in the red zone, look no further. Junkyard Jake's has developed the Goal Line Report. A breakdown of all all the runningbacks who are getting the ball in the red zone and at the goal line.

To read the report, sign up for our free Fantasy Football Tonight Season Pass.

Then visit the page at http://www.fantasyfootballsearch.com/junkyard_goal_line.asp

The True Guru goes 7-0 in week 1

Hey readers. For the third straight year, Fantasy Football Search and Todd "The True Guru" Farino lay it all out for full disclosure just how I apply my own fantasy football advice to real time fantasy football action.

This year I am participating in 7 leagues, which includes 3 expert leagues and the Blog Talk Radio League.

Most of these leagues I've been in for 3 or more years and the competition is as stiff as any league.

In week one and had the best start I could ask for going 7-0, winning across the board.

For all the weekly league details, visit our page at
http://www.fantasyfootballsearch.com/fantasy_football_guru_leagues.asp

It is updated every Tuesday with screenshots of each league standings and the match ups scores.

If you want to know that your fantasy football expert is the real deal, ask them for full fantasy football disclosure just like Fantasy Football Search.

EMAIL CLUB

Dont forget to sign up for the NFL FANTASY PLAYBOOK emails of the week and get all our picks. They can also be found at FANTASY FOOTBALL SERACH where you can get the beswt draft kit with real content brought to you by fantasy gurus, not reports. Check out the War Draft Kit and get the Seasons Pass free of charge.
if you sign up for our email club you will get a re release of the week 2 picks in time to win you your week.
cheers everyone and have a great week two.

EMAIL CLUB

Cheat Sheets have been updated as of 8/30/2009!

Check it out everyone, the cheat sheets have been updated. Please note that only the excel and PDF files have the latest cheat sheet rankings. Only Todd Farino's cheat sheets are updated on the web pages.

Thanks and email me at toddf@fantasyfootballsearch.com with any questions.

Todd "The True Guru" Farino